RomRealty

Tag: okanagan real estate

  • Rom’s Kelowna Real Estate Opinion for June 2019

    Rom’s Kelowna Real Estate Opinion for June 2019

    June 2019 Real Estate Report:

    *Click the images to enlarge

    Market summary for the first half of 2019

    The market is remaining steady to our predictions of a soft correction for this year.  Even though most of the stats report a decline, the absorption, (which is the stat that illustrates the balance of supply and demand) is still above normal for a balanced market. Usually, a balanced market will have an absorption of 12 to 14%. Central Okanagan is slightly above that. The other factor is that realtors are still reporting heavy competition in offers below $600,000 in the Central Okanagan area. In general, buyers in this price range are still having trouble finding decent, well-priced listings to buy that do not already have offers on them.

    Overall, the market in the Okanagan-Shuswap region are the best they can be. In other words, they are strong yet sustainable. We must be careful not to compare too heavily to markets from years 2007 and 2016. We must look at our present day market as busting. 2007 and 2016 were not normal market years. They were booms. We are now steady and balanced. See below for the first half year comparison from 2018 to 2019 for Central Okanagan. As always, this is just the Real Estate World according to Rom.

    Statistical Comparison of Jan-June 2018 and Jan-June 2019
    Jan-Jun % Change
    Avg. Price $639,792 -5%
    Absorption 14.8% -30%
    Sales 163 -15%
    Inventory 1067 +18%

     

  • Rom’s Kelowna Real Estate Opinion May 2019

    Rom’s Kelowna Real Estate Opinion May 2019

    Predictability and the Central Okanagan Real Estate Market

    As a realtor for many years, I have found that the real estate market can be very predictable if you follow the right stats. There has been a lot of accuracy with predicted changes as early as 18 months prior to the change happening. One major reason is that price is the most important statistic to consumers and it is the last statistic to change.

    When looking at real estate trends we have to ensure we are comparing the same months over different years. It is pointless to compare months within the same year. For example, comparing March to November makes no sense, as the market goes through annual highs and lows as well. For best predictability, we look at March sales over the last 2-3 years.

    When we are looking over a 12 month period (May 2018 to May 2019), the single family home median prices are only down 3%, from $677,500to $650,000.  This considering that the months of March to July 2018 house prices skyrocketed.

    However, for May 2018 to May 2019, median condo prices are actually up almost 10%, from $330,00 to $340,000. I expect this to neutralize due to the upcoming inventory of new condo builds.  Townhomes also are up. Over the same 12 month period, median prices went from $471,000 to $476,250. However, I predict the townhome market will neutralize just like condos. 

    Click the image below to enlarge photo comparison of May 2018 to May 2019.

    Current Situation

    As predicted in the last quarter of 2018, it was said that 2019 would be relatively flat with maybe a slight turn down. This is essentially what is happening.  In the Central Okanagan, sales are down about 15% and prices are down about 3% compared to last year. Although, the Central Okanagan has been quite robust in previous years compared to the North Okanagan, it did cool down more aggressively.

    Overall, the Okanagan is remaining a relatively strong, balanced market. This is fueled by increased migration from the B.C. lower mainland and Alberta. As always, this is just the real estate world according to Rom.