Rom’s Kelowna Real Estate Opinion May 2019

Predictability and the Central Okanagan Real Estate Market

As a realtor for many years, I have found that the real estate market can be very predictable if you follow the right stats. There has been a lot of accuracy with predicted changes as early as 18 months prior to the change happening. One major reason is that price is the most important statistic to consumers and it is the last statistic to change.

When looking at real estate trends we have to ensure we are comparing the same months over different years. It is pointless to compare months within the same year. For example, comparing March to November makes no sense, as the market goes through annual highs and lows as well. For best predictability, we look at March sales over the last 2-3 years.

When we are looking over a 12 month period (May 2018 to May 2019), the single family home median prices are only down 3%, from $677,500to $650,000.  This considering that the months of March to July 2018 house prices skyrocketed.

However, for May 2018 to May 2019, median condo prices are actually up almost 10%, from $330,00 to $340,000. I expect this to neutralize due to the upcoming inventory of new condo builds.  Townhomes also are up. Over the same 12 month period, median prices went from $471,000 to $476,250. However, I predict the townhome market will neutralize just like condos. 

Click the image below to enlarge photo comparison of May 2018 to May 2019.

Current Situation

As predicted in the last quarter of 2018, it was said that 2019 would be relatively flat with maybe a slight turn down. This is essentially what is happening.  In the Central Okanagan, sales are down about 15% and prices are down about 3% compared to last year. Although, the Central Okanagan has been quite robust in previous years compared to the North Okanagan, it did cool down more aggressively.

Overall, the Okanagan is remaining a relatively strong, balanced market. This is fueled by increased migration from the B.C. lower mainland and Alberta. As always, this is just the real estate world according to Rom.

About the Author Rom Houtstra

Rom Houtstra is a licensed and experienced Kelowna Real Estate Agent for almost 12 years with Century 21, the largest Real Estate Company in the world with over 8000 offices in 44 countries. He is committed to providing top service when it comes to selling or buying Residential or Commercial real estate and Businesses. Ask him about his comprehensive Marketing Plan and Listing Presentation. If you are looking for properties in Kelowna, West Kelowna, Vernon, or in other areas of the Okanagan Valley contact Rom.

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