Canada’s economy was forecast to return to growth in Q1 2026, with annualised GDP ~2% as spending and manufacturing improved together again.
Domestic demand looked firmer, led by household, government, and business spending, while past inventory drawdowns were not expected to repeat at the same scale.
Housing remained the key caution: residential investment was projected to stay subdued, with resales softening and demand expected to grow only modestly.
For borrowers, earlier central-bank cuts have eased balance-sheet pressure, supporting per-capita improvement even as population growth trends near zero in 2026 nationally.
Imports could subtract ~4 percentage points from headline growth, making stable trade policy and normalizing oil prices important for the outlook ahead.
